India demand forecast — live, 7-day outlook, scored daily | India Energy Atlas

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Demand forecastas of 3 Oct

Live · checked —

Live now

220.1GW

23:00 IST

Peak · last 24h

237.4GW

rolling 24h high

Actual vs forecast

+4.6GW↑ running hot

latest hour vs served p50

Official feed

Live

npp.gov.in metered

National demand — live

freshness unknownOfficial

Live now

220.1 GW

Oct 2 · 23:00 IST

confidence 100%

Get an alert when India's demand is forecast to top 250 GW

We watch the served national forecast and tell you the day before a high-demand peak.

48h block table

Hour-by-hour · national p50 + P10–P90 band · 48h

IST	Forecast MW	P10	P90	Band ±MW
00:00	2,10,757	2,00,219	2,21,295	±10,538
01:00	2,05,425	1,95,154	2,15,696	±10,271
02:00	2,01,189	1,91,130	2,11,249	±10,059
03:00	1,98,424	1,88,502	2,08,345	±9,921
04:00	1,97,556	1,87,678	2,07,434	±9,878
05:00	2,01,347	1,91,280	2,11,415	±10,067
06:00	2,06,715	1,96,379	2,17,051	±10,336
07:00	2,10,280	1,99,766	2,20,794	±10,514
08:00	2,16,166	2,05,358	2,26,975	±10,808
09:00	2,25,036	2,13,785	2,36,288	±11,252
10:00	2,26,605	2,15,275	2,37,935	±11,330
11:00	2,26,879	2,15,535	2,38,223	±11,344
12:00	2,25,576	2,14,297	2,36,855	±11,279
13:00	2,22,524	2,11,398	2,33,650	±11,126
14:00	2,26,117	2,14,811	2,37,423	±11,306
15:00	2,29,544	2,18,067	2,41,021	±11,477
16:00	2,27,235	2,15,874	2,38,597	±11,362
17:00	2,21,129	2,10,073	2,32,186	±11,056
18:00	2,22,524	2,11,398	2,33,651	±11,126
19:00	2,24,967	2,13,718	2,36,215	±11,248
20:00	2,21,210	2,10,150	2,32,271	±11,061
21:00	2,20,282	2,09,268	2,31,296	±11,014
22:00	2,19,716	2,08,730	2,30,702	±10,986
23:00	2,15,478	2,04,704	2,26,252	±10,774
00:00D+1	2,10,408	1,99,887	2,20,928	±10,520
01:00D+1	2,05,071	1,94,818	2,15,325	±10,254
02:00D+1	2,00,828	1,90,786	2,10,869	±10,041
03:00D+1	1,98,061	1,88,158	2,07,964	±9,903
04:00D+1	1,97,190	1,87,330	2,07,049	±9,859
05:00D+1	2,01,051	1,90,999	2,11,104	±10,053
06:00D+1	2,06,494	1,96,169	2,16,819	±10,325
07:00D+1	2,09,984	1,99,485	2,20,483	±10,499
08:00D+1	2,15,760	2,04,972	2,26,548	±10,788
09:00D+1	2,24,596	2,13,366	2,35,825	±11,230
10:00D+1	2,26,130	2,14,824	2,37,437	±11,307
11:00D+1	2,26,402	2,15,082	2,37,722	±11,320
12:00D+1	2,25,090	2,13,836	2,36,345	±11,255
13:00D+1	2,22,038	2,10,936	2,33,140	±11,102
14:00D+1	2,25,664	2,14,381	2,36,948	±11,283
15:00D+1	2,29,162	2,17,704	2,40,620	±11,458
16:00D+1	2,26,953	2,15,605	2,38,301	±11,348
17:00D+1	2,20,945	2,09,898	2,31,992	±11,047
18:00D+1	2,22,415	2,11,294	2,33,536	±11,121
19:00D+1	2,24,797	2,13,557	2,36,037	±11,240
20:00D+1	2,20,996	2,09,946	2,32,046	±11,050
21:00D+1	2,20,037	2,09,035	2,31,039	±11,002
22:00D+1	2,19,469	2,08,496	2,30,442	±10,973
23:00D+1	2,15,203	2,04,442	2,25,963	±10,760

Per state

Per-state forecast — 36 states, hour by hour

0–48h: trained/served source · >48h: seasonal-naive beyond 48h

Per-state · current actual + forecast peaks

State	Current actual	Peak (24h)	Peak (7d)	Last forecast (IST)	Status
Andaman Nicobar	—	54 MW	54 MW	09 Oct, 17:30	Fresh
Andhra Pradesh	9,900 MW	12,536 MW	12,803 MW	09 Oct, 17:30	Fresh

Free account, no card. Hourly load for all 36 states across the next 168 hours.

Median error · last 90d

2.4%

hourly wMAPE over 40 days

Median peak error

2.1%

daily-peak APE

Days ≥ 250 GW

9 / 40

actual peak ≥ 250 GW · 90d

250+ precision / recall

57% · 89%

predicting the 250 GW event · 90d

History

183

days recorded

Receipts score the demand forecast served each day, against realized demand. · the served national curve is currently the similar-day fallback, so these scores are of the baseline, not a promoted model.

SIMILAR-DAY FALLBACK (naive)

Daily accuracy — wMAPE calendar

Sep

Mon

Wed

Fri

more accurateless accurateskipped

Rolling accuracy trends

wMAPEPeak APEBand coveragegate 75–95% coverage

Signed bias by hour

all-hours mean — GW

—

ran highran low · GW · n per hour on hover

Peak-hour matrix

exact-hit — · n=0

No days with both a predicted and actual peak hour yet.

Day replay

Replay a dayAnonymous view shows the last 7 days.

Records

Best day · wMAPE

—

no scored days

Toughest day · wMAPE

—

no scored days

Longest in-gate streak

consecutive days · coverage 75–95%

250 GW · precision / recall

57% · 89%

calling the 250 GW peak event · 90d

Track record

Predicted vs actual — every day, misses included

Date	Pred. peak	Actual peak	wMAPE	Peak APE	Coverage	Why
2026-09-30	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-29	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-28	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-27	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-26	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-25	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.
2026-09-24	—	—	—	—	—	An ordinary demand day near seasonal norms.

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You're seeing the 7 most-recent days. 176 more days of predicted-vs-actual history back to April 2026 — plus CSV export — are free with an account. No card.

Model provenance & scoring

National and per-state demand forecasts with calibrated p10/p50/p90 uncertainty bands, scored publicly every day against realized demand. The served source — a promoted trained model or the seasonal-naive similar-day baseline — is shown on the serving chip above and can differ per issue and per state; the page never claims a model that is not serving. Forecast generated at 2026-10-02T12:54:15.600535+00:00. See /blog/demand-accuracy for the accuracy methodology.

Demand forecastas of 3 Oct

National demand — live

National demand forecast

National demand — served forecast

National demand — live

National demand forecast

National demand — served forecast

48h block table

Forecast daily peak

Peak-to-trough ramp

Per-state forecast — 36 states, hour by hour

Model provenance & scoring

Daily accuracy — wMAPE calendar

Rolling accuracy trends

Signed bias by hour

Peak-hour matrix

Day replay

Records

Predicted vs actual — every day, misses included

Model provenance & scoring

Demand forecastas of 3 OctNational demand now, the 168-hour per-state forecast, and the running record of predicted against actual.

Per-state forecast — 36 states, hour by hourThe trained model horizon is 48h. Hours beyond 48h are the seasonal-naive beyond 48h series (same-day-type, same-hour) extended to 168h, so shape and timing hold but the far tail is a baseline, not a model.

Predicted vs actual — every day, misses included

Demand forecastas of 3 Oct

Per-state forecast — 36 states, hour by hour