# IDCR 2026 forecast reconciliation methodology

Updated: 28 July 2026  
Publisher: India Energy Atlas  
Public source room: https://www.energymap.in/idcr/newsroom

## What the numbers measure

- **Operational IT load (GW):** commissioned compute load available to IT equipment. The IDCR 2030 scenarios use this measure.
- **Facility power input (GW):** IT load plus cooling, power conversion, lighting, and other overhead. It equals operational IT load multiplied by power usage effectiveness (PUE).
- **Annual electricity consumption (TWh):** energy used over a year. It depends on facility input and average utilisation; it is not interchangeable with a GW capacity number.
- **Grid-planning load (GW):** demand that utilities and transmission planners may need to prepare for, including projects that are not yet commissioned. The Ministry of Power's reported 26.3 GW additional-load figure belongs in this category.

## IDCR scenario assumptions

- 2025 operational IT load baseline: 1.5 GW, following the Government of India / PIB statement dated 13 March 2026.
- Target year: 2030.
- 2030 scenarios: 4.5 GW conservative, 6.5 GW base, and 9.0 GW upside.
- 2030 PUE: 1.35.
- Average annual utilisation: 85%.

Formulae:

```text
Facility input (GW) = operational IT load (GW) × PUE
Annual energy (TWh) = facility input (GW) × 8.76 × average utilisation
CAGR = (target / baseline) ^ (1 / years) - 1
```

This produces the following 2030 bridge:

| Scenario | Operational IT load | Facility input | Annual energy | 2025-30 CAGR |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Conservative | 4.5 GW | 6.1 GW | 45 TWh | 24.6% |
| Base | 6.5 GW | 8.8 GW | 65 TWh | 34.1% |
| Upside | 9.0 GW | 12.2 GW | 90 TWh | 43.1% |

## How the external forecasts are treated

Wood Mackenzie forecasts 12 GW of operational data-centre capacity in 2030 from a 2.2 GW 2025 baseline, or approximately 40% CAGR. The IDCR base case is 45.8% below that forecast and the IDCR upside case is 25% below it. The growth rates are closer because Wood Mackenzie starts from a higher baseline.

The Ministry of Power figure reported on 27 July is an **additional 26.3 GW load by FY2031-32**, based on projects received by states. It is a grid-planning envelope, not a commissioned operational-IT forecast. Converting it into IT capacity would require project-level PUE, diversity, utilisation, phasing, duplication, sanction, and connection evidence that is not public in the reported reply.

The March government estimate of 13.56 GW and the July reported 26.3 GW figure also use different wording: the former is estimated electricity demand from data centres, while the latter is additional AI data-centre load. They should not be treated as a clean time-series revision without the underlying Ministry table and definitions.

## Primary links

1. Government of India / PIB, 13 March 2026: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2239616&lang=1&reg=1
2. Wood Mackenzie, 27 July 2026: https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/india-data-centre-capacity-to-reach-12-gw-by-2030/
3. The Indian Express report on the parliamentary reply, 27 July 2026: https://indianexpress.com/article/business/ai-data-centres-26-3-gw-power-demand-grid-stability-power-ministry-10806189/
4. KPMG in India, July 2026: https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmgsites/in/pdf/2026/07/india-data-centre-opportunity-from-emerging-demand-hub-to-integrated-data-centre-powerhouse.pdf

## Limitations and update policy

The IDCR scenarios are planning scenarios, not promises. Announced projects are discounted for connection, construction, and execution risk. India Energy Atlas will revise the bridge when project-level sanction, connection, commissioning, or operational evidence materially changes the probability-weighted outlook.

The CC BY 4.0 licence applies to the Atlas-authored reconciliation table, calculations, and annotations. Third-party source material remains subject to its publisher's terms; users should cite and link the original source.