Key Facts — India's Energy Position
- 89% crude oil import dependency, up from 84% in 2020 — 4th highest among G20 economies.(PPAC Annual Report 2024-25)
- 9.5 days of strategic petroleum reserve (5.33 MMT ISPRL capacity) against 242 MT/yr crude imports. IEA recommends 90 days.(MoPNG / ISPRL)
- 85% of crude, LNG, and LPG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz — a single 33km-wide channel.(PPAC, S&P Global Platts)
- 329 million households use LPG for cooking, including 103M Ujjwala beneficiaries. Buffer stock: 14 days.(MoPNG Ujjwala Dashboard)
- Alternate crude routing via Cape of Good Hope adds ~15 days transit time. At 242 MT/yr import rate, SPR of 9.5 days does not cover the gap.est(Atlas calculation based on PPAC/ISPRL data)
Crude Import %
89%
↑ 84% in 2020of consumption met by imports
SPR Cover
9.5 days
↑ ~5 days in 20185.33 MMT ISPRL capacity
Source Countries
43
→ 41 in 2022bilateral energy relationships
Top 3 supply 76% of crude
LPG Import %
60%
↑ 44% in 2015329M households depend on LPG
China Solar Eq.
75%
↑ 58% in 2019of solar cells/modules imported
Hormuz Score
0.85
→ 0.83 in 2023chokepoint vulnerability (0-1)
85% of crude+LNG+LPG transit
Top 3 Risks — March 2026
Hormuz Chokepoint Dependency
85% of crude, LNG, LPG transits one strait (PPAC, S&P Global Platts)
329M cooking gas households have 14 days of LPG buffer stock. SPR covers 9.5 days of crude consumption. Alternate Cape routing adds ~15 days transit time. (PPAC, S&P Global Platts)
→ Gap between SPR exhaustion and alternate supply arrival: ~5-6 days with no cover. est (Atlas calculation based on PPAC/ISPRL data)
Ranking unchanged since Feb 2026 — but 4 active HIGH-severity events in geopolitical monitor
Strategic Reserve Deficit
9.5 days SPR cover vs. IEA-recommended 90 days (MoPNG, ISPRL)
5.33 MMT ISPRL capacity was sized for a smaller economy. India now imports 242 MT/yr of crude oil. Each additional day of SPR requires ~$400M in infrastructure investment. (MoPNG, ISPRL)
→ ISPRL Phase II (Chandikhol + Padur expansion) would add ~6.5 days. Target: 22 days by 2030. (ISPRL project documents, MoPNG Parliamentary Committee reports)
Ranking unchanged — ISPRL Phase II construction ongoing, not yet operational
China Solar Equipment Dependency
75% of solar cells/modules imported from China (MNRE, DGCI&S)
India's 500 GW renewable target by 2030 relies on a single foreign supplier for photovoltaic equipment. PLI scheme (₹24,000 Cr) supports domestic manufacturing, but capacity is 2-3 years from scale. (MNRE, DGCI&S)
→ Domestic PLI-backed capacity: ~40 GW/yr cells + 60 GW/yr modules expected by 2027. (MNRE PLI progress reports)
Improving — first PLI tranche capacity coming online H2 2026. Watch for actual vs. planned output.
How India Compares
| Metric | 🇮🇳 India | 🇨🇳 China | 🇺🇸 USA | 🇯🇵 Japan | IEA Benchmark | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Import % | 89% | 73% | 3% | 88% | — | IEA WEO 2024, PPAC |
| SPR Days | 9.5 | ~90est | 36 | 150 | 90 rec. | MoPNG, IEA, DOE, JOGMEC |
| Hormuz Transit %% of hydrocarbon imports transiting Hormuz | 85% | ~45%est | <5% | ~80%est | — | S&P Global, EIA |
| LNG Import %USA is a net LNG exporter | 50% | 42% | net exp. | 97% | — | IEA, PPAC |
| Renewable %Share of total primary energy | 12% | 16% | 22% | 22% | 30% target | IRENA, CEA |
Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024, PPAC, MoPNG/ISPRL, S&P Global Platts, IRENA, CEA, US DOE, JOGMEC. Values marked est are estimates from latest available data, which may lag 6-12 months. Hormuz Transit % quantifies the share of each country's hydrocarbon imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
All data sourced from official government publications unless marked (est.)
Layer A · Structural Energy Risk
Long-term fundamentals that change annually or slower
Supply Chain
Where India's Energy Comes From
$180B+ in annual energy imports flow through just 4 maritime chokepoints. 85% of crude oil transits a single 33km-wide channel — the Strait of Hormuz.
Import vs. Domestic — click to explore source breakdown
Click a resource to explore
Source countries, transit routes, and chokepoint exposure
Maritime Chokepoints
80-85% of crude, 70% of LNG, all LPG imports — a single 33km-wide channel
60% of coal imports, 75% of solar equipment, 70% of critical minerals
30-35% of India's westbound merchandise trade — Houthi attacks ongoing since Jan 2024
Bypass route — adds 15 days transit time and $2-3/bbl freight cost
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: PPAC, DGCI&S, MoPNG · Confidence: High · Updated: Annual
Domestic Chain
From Import to Kitchen
4 imported fuels → 16 transformations → 27 end uses touching 1.4B lives
Width proportional to political sensitivity. Red = high political risk, amber = moderate, green = secure. Hover over nodes and links for details.
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: PPAC, MoPNG, Census 2011, Ujjwala Dashboard · Confidence: High · Updated: Annual
State-Level Risk
Regional Vulnerability Map
Highest Risk States
Lowest Risk States
Scores: 0.00 (secure) to 1.00 (vulnerable). Based on refining concentration, coal/LPG dependency, industrial power demand, and import exposure. Sources: CEA, PPAC, State ERCs. Confidence: Medium (composite scoring). Updated: Annual.
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: CEA, PPAC, State ERCs, Census 2011 · Confidence: Medium · Updated: Annual
Layer B · Market Stress Signals
Short-term market data, price movements, and geopolitical events
Market Monitor
Energy Price & Volume Tracker
Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl)
Rule of thumb: Every $10/bbl move ≈ +0.4% CPI, +$15B current account deficit, ₹0.50/unit power cost(RBI Monetary Policy Report)
Monthly Import Volumes (MT)
Macroeconomic Indicators(est.)
Inflation (CPI)
Lower oil → −0.3% CPI pressure (RBI methodology)
Fiscal Balance
Subsidy pressure stable at current prices (MoF Budget docs)
Current Account
Improving — lower import bill easing CAD (RBI BoP data)
Power Demand
Rising → coal imports increasing for summer (CEA, Coal India)
Rule of thumb: ₹10/bbl crude increase → +0.4% CPI, +$15B CAD, ₹0.50/unit power cost(RBI Monetary Policy Report)
Market Intelligence Brief
Brent crude down 17.5% from 12-month high of $91.2/bbl
→ India: Import bill pressure easing — estimated ₹12,000cr monthly savings at current volumes
Oil prices down 8.3% year-over-year ($75.2/bbl)
→ India: CPI pressure down ~0.3% — positive for RBI rate trajectory and fiscal balance
Crude imports up 3.2% YoY to ~241.9 MT
→ India: Growing demand increases structural vulnerability — import dependency rising toward 90%
Coal imports fell 1.8% YoY — domestic production offsetting
→ India: Domestic coal gains reduce Malacca transit exposure, but power cost implications mixed
Auto-generated from latest market data. Oil prices from EIA, import volumes from PPAC proxy, maritime events from gCaptain.
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: S&P Global, MoPNG, PPAC, RBI · Confidence: High · Updated: Daily / Monthly
Geopolitical Risk
Maritime Chokepoint Risk Monitor
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping escalate
+$2-3/bbl freight premium
Baltimore bridge collapse disrupts US East Coast shipping
Minimal for India
Iran nuclear talks collapse, Hormuz tensions rise
+$1-2/bbl risk premium
Panama Canal drought restrictions tighten
Negligible for India (Pacific route)
China export controls on gallium, germanium expanded
+15-20% on critical minerals
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: S&P Global, Lloyd's List, Reuters, BIMCO · Confidence: Medium · Updated: Weekly
Layer C · Shock Scenarios
What-if analysis — disruption cascades, GDP impact, and policy response options
Scenario Analysis
Disruption Cascade Simulator
What If?
Click a scenario to see the impact cascade across the entire page
All scenarios are simplified cascade models — not predictions. Confidence: Low. See methodology for model limitations.
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: Atlas cascade engine (model-based) · Confidence: Low · Updated: On-demand
Score & Methodology
Composite indices, vulnerability scoring, and transparent methodology
47
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India Energy Security Score
VulnerableWeighted composite of 7 resource vulnerability dimensions — import concentration, chokepoint exposure, reserves, substitutability, and political sensitivity.
Methodology & Data Provenance
Energy Security Score v1.0 · March 2026 · Council for Independent Frontier Research
Live Signal
Energy Security Pulse
Composite of 4 real-time signals: thermal generation share, IEX DAM price, demand-supply gap, grid frequency. Sources: IEX, Grid-India (POSOCO), CEA. Confidence: Medium (model-based composite). Updated: Hourly.
Risk Assessment
Vulnerability Matrix
Click a resource to isolate its vulnerability profile
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: PPAC, MoPNG, World Bank, USGS · Confidence: Medium · Updated: Annual
Elemental Security
Periodic Table of India's Energy Dependencies
Data as of: March 2026 · Sources: USGS, Indian Bureau of Mines, NITI Aayog · Confidence: High · Updated: Annual