Arunachal Pradesh — Data Verification vs CEA / SLDC / NER-LDC
Verdict · PARTIAL — headline all-time peak (228 MW) reconciles with the CEA-recorded peak (218 MW, +4.6%, within tolerance); installed capacity is a physical-vs-allocated basis difference (page 2,021 MW physical in-state vs CEA 784 MW allocated, IEA-1199, not an error); the 408 MW two-year-peak tile is the systemic mis-wire to live demand (IEA-1198); AT&C, RPO, tariff and interchange remain unverified.
Arunachal Pradesh — Verification Report (May 2026)
Page verified: /states/arunachal-pradesh · Retrieved: "2026-05-30". Tolerance: ±5% / ±2pp.
Peak-demand fields (disambiguated)
The page surfaces four distinct demand figures; the first three are equal on this read, which is the tell-tale of the systemic tile bug.
| Field on page | Displayed value | Date shown |
|---|---|---|
| Current demand (live) | 408 MW | 2026-05-30 |
| Today's peak | 408 MW (at 00:00 IST) | 2026-05-30 |
| Two-year peak (tile) | 408 MW | "2026-05-30" |
| All-time / record peak (POSOCO) | 228 MW | "2025-09-05" |
The current demand, today's peak and two-year-peak tiles are all 408 MW at 00:00 IST — the two-year tile is mis-wired to the live snapshot rather than the rolling 24-month maximum (systemic IEA-1198). The only credible recorded peak on the page is the 228 MW all-time tile, used for the headline verdict below.
Anchor comparison
| # | Metric | energymap displays | Authoritative source (value · retrieved) | Δ | Within tolerance? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peak demand (headline = all-time tile) | 228 MW ("2025-09-05", POSOCO) | 218 MW FY2024-25 recorded peak · CEA RA Report, Table 4 · "2026-05-30" | +4.6% | ✅ |
| 1b | Two-year-peak tile (systemic) | 408 MW ("2026-05-30") | 218 MW recorded peak (same CEA source) | +87.2% | ❌ — IEA-1198 tile mis-wire, not a data error |
| 2 | Installed capacity (total) | 2,021.3 MW (physical in-state) | 783.88 MW (CEA allocation-wise Sub-Total, GrandTotal col) · CEA Aug-2025 · cea.nic.in · "2026-05-30" | +157.6% | ⚠️ basis difference (IEA-1199), not a tolerance failure |
| 3 | Capacity by fuel | Hydro 1,865.0 MW; RES 156.33 MW (physical in-state; 3 plants) | CEA Aug-2025 allocation-wise: Coal 37.05, Gas 46.82, Hydro 544.55, RES 155.46 (RE-Total 700.01) | — | ⚠️ basis difference (IEA-1199) |
| 4 | AT&C losses | Not displayed ("not published") | PFC / APSERC — not retrieved this pass | — | ⚠️ unverified |
| 5 | RPO compliance | Not displayed ("no trajectory/compliance data") | APSERC — not retrieved | — | ⚠️ unverified |
| 6 | Residential tariff | ₹4.40/kWh | APSERC tariff order — not independently retrieved this pass | — | ⚠️ unverified |
| 7 | Interchange / RT demand | Imports 120 MW (NER, projected); exports 0 MW | NER-LDC PSP / SLDC — not retrieved | — | ⚠️ unverified |
Findings
- Headline peak reconciles (PASS): the page's all-time/POSOCO tile of 228 MW ("2025-09-05") sits +4.6% above the CEA Resource Adequacy report's FY2024-25 recorded peak of 218 MW (Table 4: Peak Demand 218 MW, Peak Met 191 MW). A September-2025 POSOCO reading post-dating FY2024-25 being marginally higher is consistent with the 3.34% peak CAGR the CEA report cites. Within the ±5% gate.
- The 408 MW two-year-peak tile is the systemic mis-wire, NOT a real peak: it is identical to the live demand and today's-peak values (all 408 MW at 00:00 IST), so it is showing the live snapshot rather than the 24-month maximum. It over-states the ~218–228 MW true peak by ~+87%. This is the known IEA-1198 two-year-peak tile bug (here it over-states because it is pinned to a live value). Implausibility check: AR's total contracted capacity is only 414 MW (CEA RA, March 2025), so a 408 MW peak is not credible. No new ticket per instructions.
- Installed-capacity gap is a basis difference, not an error (IEA-1199): the page reports 2,021.3 MW physically located in-state (infra-counts: one 1,865.0 MW hydro plant + 156.33 MW RES across 2 plants, 3 plants total). CEA's allocation-wise table credits Arunachal Pradesh only its drawing allocation of 783.88 MW (Sub-Total row, GrandTotal column — verified the row belongs to AR: State 116.61 + Private 38.85 + Central 628.42 = 783.88; Coal 37.05, Gas 46.82, Hydro 544.55, RES 155.46, RE-Total 700.01). Arunachal Pradesh is hydro-rich: large central-sector hydro physically sited in-state is allocated out to other NER/national beneficiaries, so physical (2,021 MW) >> allocated (784 MW). This is the physical-vs-allocated basis divergence, explicitly not a tolerance failure.
- Unverifiable anchors honestly marked: AT&C losses and RPO compliance are not published on the page; the residential tariff (₹4.40/kWh) and NER interchange (120 MW import, projected) are displayed but were not cross-checked against a retrieved APSERC / NER-LDC source this pass — left unverified rather than asserted.
Methodology
Live values read from the Arunachal Pradesh page and /infra-counts API on "2026-05-30"; authoritative values quoted with source URL + retrieval date. CEA installed capacity from the Aug-2025 allocation-wise report (cached /tmp/cea_ic.txt; AR Sub-Total row cross-footed to confirm correct state-row alignment). Recorded peak from the CEA Resource Adequacy Plan, Table 4 (downloaded with curl -sk due to CEA's broken TLS chain; converted with pdftotext -layout). No value interpolated; unverifiable anchors marked unverified.
Part of the F40 per-state cross-verification programme (IEA-1070).
Sources
- CEA Installed Capacity Report (Aug-2025, allocation-wise) — https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/installed/2025/08/IC_Aug_2025allocation_wise-1.pdf
- CEA Resource Adequacy Plan (Generation) for Arunachal Pradesh — https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/resource_adequacy_st/2026/01/RA_Report_ArunachalPradesh_2035_36.pdf
- energymap state page — https://energymap.in/states/arunachal-pradesh
- energymap infra-counts API — https://api.energymap.in/api/states/arunachal-pradesh/infra-counts