Uttar Pradesh — Verification Report (May 2026)

Page verified: /states/uttar-pradesh · Retrieved: 2026-05-30. Tolerance: ±5% / ±2pp.

Peak demand — the four distinct fields

The UP page exposes several demand fields that must NOT be conflated. On 2026-05-30 they all derive from the modeled state-demand series (modeled_state_demand_v1, confirmed via the /today API):

Field on page	Value	Date shown
Current demand ("Demand now")	17,610 MW	live
Today's peak ("Peak today")	19,579 MW	10:00 IST
Two-year peak	19,579.2 MW	"2026-05-29"
All-time peak ("POSOCO all-time peak")	19,579 MW	"2026-05-29"

All four collapse onto ~19,579 MW because the page's peak history is built from the modeled-demand feed, which caps well below the true grid peak. The authoritative UPSLDC record is 31,824 MW.

Anchor comparison

#	Metric	energymap displays	Authoritative source (value · retrieved)	Δ	Within tolerance?
1	Peak demand (HEADLINE: all-time peak tile vs record)	19,579 MW (all-time peak tile, "2026-05-29")	31,824 MW all-time record, "2026-05-24" (UPSLDC) · Organiser · 2026-05-30	−38.5%	❌ (IEA-1198)
1b	Two-year peak tile	19,579.2 MW ("2026-05-29")	≥ 31,824 MW within window (record fell 2026-05-24)	understates	❌ (IEA-1198)
2	Installed capacity (total)	39,034.7 MW (physical in-state, 9 plants)	34,726.30 MW CEA allocation-wise GrandTotal · CEA Aug-2025 · 2026-05-30	+12.4%	✅ basis-explained (IEA-1199)
3	Capacity by fuel	Coal 30,035 · RES 6,564.9 · Gas 1,493.1 · Hydro 501.6 · Nuclear 440.0 MW	CEA Aug-2025 allocation-wise: Coal 23,894.8 · Thermal-total 24,924.3 · RES 5,847.6 · Hydro 3,584.0 · Nuclear 370.5 MW	—	✅ basis mismatch (IEA-1199)
4	AT&C losses	27.9% (MVVNL, FY23) / 17.9% (PVVNL, FY23)	PFC Integrated Rating — not retrieved	—	⚠️ unverified
5	RPO compliance	13.6% (FY23, modeled)	UERC — not retrieved	—	⚠️ unverified
6	Residential tariff	₹3.00/kWh (Lifeline 0–100 kWh)	UPERC tariff order — not retrieved	—	⚠️ unverified
7	Interchange / RT demand	Imports 11,081 MW (projected, NR)	NR-LDC PSP / UPSLDC — not retrieved	—	⚠️ unverified

Findings

• Peak demand is the headline failure (genuine, same-basis). The page's all-time peak tile reads 19,579 MW, but UPSLDC met a verified all-time record of 31,824 MW on "2026-05-24" at ~22:29 IST — the highest peak met by any Indian state in 2025-26, surpassing the prior 31,486 MW benchmark (June 11, 2025). That is a −38.5% understatement, far outside ±5%. The root cause is that all of the page's peak fields are derived from the modeled state-demand series, which caps near ~19.6 GW; this is the known systemic IEA-1198 (two-year / all-time peak tiles understate high-demand states). This is a NEGATIVE delta (page << authoritative), i.e. a real understatement, not a misread — no new fix-ticket proposed per instructions.
• The two-year peak tile (19,579 MW) is the same IEA-1198 understatement — it should sit at or above the record (≥31,824 MW within the trailing window). Referenced, no new ticket.
• Installed capacity is a BASIS difference, NOT an error. The page shows 39,034.7 MW = the sum of 9 plants physically located in UP (infra-counts API). CEA's allocation-wise table reports UP's allocated share = 34,726.30 MW (Sub-Total GrandTotal row, verified to belong to the Uttar Pradesh block, not the adjacent Rajasthan/Uttarakhand rows). The +12.4% / +4,308 MW gap is the classic physical-vs-allocated signature: displayed coal (30,035 MW) sits well above CEA allocated coal (23,894.8 MW) because UP hosts large in-state thermal whose central/private output is allocated out to other states; conversely displayed hydro (501.6 MW) sits far below CEA allocated hydro (3,584.0 MW), which is mostly UP's imported share of central-sector hydro outside the state. This is the physical-vs-allocated basis issue (IEA-1199), explicitly NOT a tolerance failure.
• Anchors 4–7 are honestly marked unverified — no authoritative PFC / UERC / UPERC / NR-LDC source was retrieved in this pass; no value was interpolated or guessed.

Verdict

FAIL — driven by a single genuine, same-basis breach: the all-time peak tile understates the verified UPSLDC record by −38.5% (19,579 MW vs 31,824 MW), the systemic modeled-peak bug IEA-1198. Installed capacity (+12.4%) is reclassified from the first pass as basis-explained PASS (physical in-state vs CEA allocated, IEA-1199), not a data error. Anchors 4–7 remain unverified.

Methodology

Live values read from the Uttar Pradesh page on 2026-05-30; peak provenance confirmed via https://api.energymap.in/api/states/uttar-pradesh/today (source modeled_state_demand_v1); displayed installed capacity confirmed via https://api.energymap.in/api/states/uttar-pradesh/infra-counts (installed_capacity_mw = 39,034.7; per-fuel as tabulated). CEA capacity via the Aug-2025 allocation-wise report, Sub-Total GrandTotal row for Uttar Pradesh = 34,726.30 MW (Coal 23,894.77 · Gas 1,029.51 · Thermal-total 24,924.28 · Nuclear 370.45 · Hydro 3,584.02 · RES 5,847.55). All authoritative values quoted with source + retrieval date. No value interpolated.

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Part of the F40 per-state cross-verification programme (IEA-1070).