Demand — actual & forecast
issued 2 Oct, 23:00 IST
Global modelPeak 24.7 GW · 23:00 IST
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Forecast
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Uttar Pradesh · generation mix · back to 2020
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State at a glance
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Subsidies & Incentives
4 active schemes applicable to Uttar Pradesh
Editorial seed catalogue covering central schemes (PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, PM-KUSUM) plus state-specific schemes (DBT for agriculture, domestic free-units, OA banking). Rows with is_modeled=true are reasonable estimates pending direct verification of the primary GR / regulator order.
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News has moved to the News page
Every story tagged Uttar Pradesh, with its sources and the figures it reports, lives on one page you can filter and search.
Read Uttar Pradesh newsUttar Pradesh is drawing 22,594 MW as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST, sourced from the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) account for 2.1% of in-state generation in Uttar Pradesh as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST. Nuclear and imports are excluded.
Uttar Pradesh's current grid carbon intensity is 895 gCO2/kWh as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST, computed from the metered fuel mix using CEA v18 lifecycle emission factors.
Today's peak demand so far in Uttar Pradesh occurred at 8 pm IST. The value remains provisional until the current IST day ends.
Distribution in Uttar Pradesh is handled by one or more state-licensed DISCOMs; see the DISCOM card on the state page for the live roster.
The day-ahead demand forecast for Uttar Pradesh runs at single-digit MAPE; we publish the rolling 30-day MAPE on the State MAPE History card so readers can audit it themselves. Live demand comes from the SLDC scrape when available; non-SLDC states use the Atlas DISCOM disaggregation pipeline (Tier-A/B/C provenance, P10/P50/P90 bands).
Uttar Pradesh is drawing 22,594 MW of electricity at the current hour (2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30 IST), per the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
The latest modeled in-state generation mix for Uttar Pradesh is dominated by Coal at 92.9%. Grid carbon intensity is 895 gCO2/kWh.
Hourly disaggregation for Uttar Pradesh is awaiting the cross-project Atlas DISCOM Disaggregation tier-A endpoint; once it lands the live page will surface P10/P50/P90 bands without any FE change.
The day-ahead hourly demand forecast for Uttar Pradesh publishes a ±1.5σ band over the next 24 hours — per-state model v21 (holdout MAPE 4.8%); level-calibrated x1.10 vs canonical trailing 24h.
Composed at 2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30
Load shape
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Load distribution
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Weather sensitivity
Slope
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R²
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Confidence
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Demand's sensitivity to temperature (MW per degree) is what turns a heatwave forecast into a load forecast. A high, tight slope means cooling load dominates and peaks are weather-driven and forecastable; a weak or noisy slope means the swing factor is something else — industrial shifts, agriculture, or a data gap worth questioning.
We do not show a modeled-vs-actual chart for Uttar Pradesh because no audited live SLDC interval served-load actual; the available source is modeled, a daily peak, dead/restricted, or otherwise outside the pinned L(s,t) estimand. Accuracy scoring requires an independent interval actual.
Verified <5% on the leak-free IEA-1763 spike; the live-served forecast is currently above target (serving-side level/staleness artifact) pending the recommended calibration deploy.
Median gCO₂/kWh · day-of-week × hour-of-day (IST)
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Policy & RE Transition
Latest actual
FY23 · modelled
Shortfall
vs FY23 target
A Renewable Purchase Obligation is statutory, not aspirational: a state utility must source a set share of its energy from renewables or pay a penalty. A widening shortfall against the MNRE trajectory is an early signal of either a procurement gap or a banked-REC scramble at year-end — both move power and REC prices.
We do not show a solar capture-rate for Uttar Pradesh because no audited live SLDC interval served-load actual; the available source is modeled, a daily peak, dead/restricted, or otherwise outside the pinned L(s,t) estimand. Accuracy scoring requires an independent interval actual.
Grid cleanliness
Each cell is one hour's grid carbon intensity. Greener = cleaner, browner = more fossil — the green hours are when discretionary load is cheapest on emissions.
SOURCE: CEA carbon factors · UPDATED 23:30 IST
Generation mix
Each band is a fuel's share of generation each hour — watch the solar wedge swell midday and coal hold the baseload, independent of total load.
SOURCE: SLDC fuel mix · UPDATED 23:30 IST
Coverage: frequency since 2025-09-19; congestion since 2026-05-22; demand records since 2018-01-01; news since 2026-05-22.
Interchange over-drawal +1742 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -347 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -412 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -661 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -337 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -348 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -449 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -378 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -426 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -348 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +324 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +501 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
An hourly residential cost curve isn't published for Uttar Pradesh yet — it appears once the underlying tariff data is available.
Upstream: atlas-discom-disaggregation · /v1/discom-disaggregation/hourly-residential-demand
Residential Tariff
| Schedule | Slab | Energy rate (₹/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| LMV-1-OTHER | 0–100 kWh | ₹5.50 |
| LMV-1-OTHER-LIFELINE | 0–100 kWh | ₹3.00 |
| LMV-1-BULK | 0+ kWh | ₹7.00 |
| LMV-1-RURAL-LIFELINE | 0–100 kWh | ₹3.00 |
| LMV-1-RURAL-OTHER | 0–100 kWh | ₹3.35 |
| LMV-1-RURAL-OTHER | 100–150 kWh | ₹3.85 |
| LMV-1-OTHER | 100–150 kWh | ₹5.50 |
| LMV-1-RURAL-OTHER | 150–300 kWh | ₹5.00 |
3 additional slabs hidden.
10-Year Tariff History
Published slab rates · no derived averages
DISCOM Health
Madhyanchal Vidyut Vitran Nigam Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY16 → FY23
27.9%
Latest
Paschimanchal Vidyut Vitran Nigam Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY16 → FY23
17.9%
Latest
Aggregate Technical & Commercial losses per PFC's Annual Integrated Rating of State Power Distribution Utilities. Backfilled FY16 onwards where published. Latest published edition is the 13th Rating (FY22-23 data); forward-year cells marked is_modeled=true.
AT&C (Aggregate Technical & Commercial) loss is the single clearest read on a distribution utility's solvency. Every percentage point is power delivered but never billed or collected; a worsening trend tells you a DISCOM is heading toward the payment delays that ripple back to gencos and IPPs.