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Enterprise product
Day-ahead and real-time IEX price forecasts, published with their uncertainty and scored in public.
A price forecasting desk for the Indian Energy Exchange. Every morning it publishes a 96-block day-ahead outlook for DAM and for G-DAM; through the day it rolls a 10-block real-time outlook every 15 minutes. Each block carries a P10, P50 and P90, not a single point.
Every forecast is stored as issued. Nothing is restated after the fact, so the replay tab reconstructs exactly what the desk published at the time and scores it against the cleared market price. The accuracy record is the product's own output, not a claim about it.
Why this one
Any model can look accurate once it has been retrofitted to what happened. Ours cannot be, because the issued vintage is immutable.
Each publication is written once with its model version, its input sources and its issue time. When the exchange clears, the same record is scored against the market clearing price — MAPE, weighted MAPE, coverage of the 80% band, and directional accuracy, broken out by forecast horizon. Nothing is recalculated backwards.
That means two things you can check rather than take on trust: the bands are calibrated, so a P10–P90 that claims 80% coverage is measured at 80%; and the track record is a replay of real published vintages, so you can test a trading or procurement rule on exactly what the desk knew at the time.
Who uses it
Data centre & C&I buyers
A 24×7 load pays for certainty it does not always need. With a calibrated band on every block you can see which hours are cheap enough to take on the exchange and which ones justify a contracted tariff — and size the exposure before the bid window rather than after the bill.
Solar & wind developers
Merchant and part-merchant structures live or die on the price in your generation hours, which are the hours the market is longest. Read the DAM and G-DAM outlook against your generation shape, and the green basis against conventional DAM, before you commit a tranche to the exchange.
BESS developers & traders
Arbitrage is a decision made against a forecast spread, and the money is in the tail rather than the mean. Rolling RTM against DAM gives the basis and scarcity signal that decides whether to hold charge or dispatch, with the uncertainty attached so the trade is sized honestly.
Coverage
Enterprise forecasting stack
DECISION LOOP
QUALITY CONTROLS
Next step
Name a delivery date you traded or procured through. We replay the vintage the desk published for it and score it in front of you.
