Demand — actual & forecast
issued 2 Oct, 22:00 IST
Global modelPeak 19.6 GW · 07:00 IST
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Forecast
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Tamil Nadu · generation mix · back to 2020
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State at a glance
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Subsidies & Incentives
4 active schemes applicable to Tamil Nadu
Editorial seed catalogue covering central schemes (PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, PM-KUSUM) plus state-specific schemes (DBT for agriculture, domestic free-units, OA banking). Rows with is_modeled=true are reasonable estimates pending direct verification of the primary GR / regulator order.
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News has moved to the News page
Every story tagged Tamil Nadu, with its sources and the figures it reports, lives on one page you can filter and search.
Read Tamil Nadu newsTamil Nadu is drawing 17,970 MW as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST, sourced from the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) account for 13.5% of in-state generation in Tamil Nadu as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST. Nuclear and imports are excluded.
Tamil Nadu's current grid carbon intensity is 708 gCO2/kWh as of 2026-10-02T17:00:00+00:00 IST, computed from the metered fuel mix using CEA v18 lifecycle emission factors.
Today's peak demand so far in Tamil Nadu occurred at 14:30 IST. The value remains provisional until the current IST day ends.
Distribution in Tamil Nadu is handled by one or more state-licensed DISCOMs; see the DISCOM card on the state page for the live roster.
The day-ahead demand forecast for Tamil Nadu runs at single-digit MAPE; we publish the rolling 30-day MAPE on the State MAPE History card so readers can audit it themselves. Live demand comes from the SLDC scrape when available; non-SLDC states use the Atlas DISCOM disaggregation pipeline (Tier-A/B/C provenance, P10/P50/P90 bands).
Tamil Nadu is drawing 17,970 MW of electricity at the current hour (2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30 IST), per the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
The latest modeled in-state generation mix for Tamil Nadu is dominated by Coal at 63.7%. Grid carbon intensity is 708 gCO2/kWh.
Demand for Tamil Nadu is sourced from a live SLDC scrape (metered, no disaggregation needed).
The day-ahead hourly demand forecast for Tamil Nadu publishes a ±1.5σ band over the next 24 hours — per-state model v20 (holdout MAPE 2.9%); level-calibrated x1.10 vs canonical trailing 24h.
Composed at 2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30
Load shape
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Load distribution
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Weather sensitivity
Slope
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R²
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Confidence
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Demand's sensitivity to temperature (MW per degree) is what turns a heatwave forecast into a load forecast. A high, tight slope means cooling load dominates and peaks are weather-driven and forecastable; a weak or noisy slope means the swing factor is something else — industrial shifts, agriculture, or a data gap worth questioning.
We do not show a modeled-vs-actual chart for Tamil Nadu because no audited live SLDC interval served-load actual; the available source is modeled, a daily peak, dead/restricted, or otherwise outside the pinned L(s,t) estimand. Accuracy scoring requires an independent interval actual.
Verified <5% on the leak-free IEA-1763 spike; the live-served forecast is currently above target (serving-side level/staleness artifact) pending the recommended calibration deploy.
Median gCO₂/kWh · day-of-week × hour-of-day (IST)
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Policy & RE Transition
Latest actual
FY23 · modelled
Shortfall
vs FY23 target
A Renewable Purchase Obligation is statutory, not aspirational: a state utility must source a set share of its energy from renewables or pay a penalty. A widening shortfall against the MNRE trajectory is an early signal of either a procurement gap or a banked-REC scramble at year-end — both move power and REC prices.
Grid cleanliness
Each cell is one hour's grid carbon intensity. Greener = cleaner, browner = more fossil — the green hours are when discretionary load is cheapest on emissions.
SOURCE: CEA carbon factors · UPDATED 01:30 IST
Coverage: frequency since 2025-09-19; congestion since 2026-05-22; demand records since 2018-01-01; news since 2026-05-22.
Interchange under-drawal -310 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -607 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -621 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +390 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +480 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +363 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +248 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -272 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -287 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -296 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -296 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange over-drawal +232 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
An hourly residential cost curve isn't published for Tamil Nadu yet — it appears once the underlying tariff data is available.
Upstream: atlas-discom-disaggregation · /v1/discom-disaggregation/hourly-residential-demand
Residential Tariff
| Schedule | Slab | Energy rate (₹/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| LT-IA | 0–400 kWh | ₹4.95 |
| LT-IA | 400–500 kWh | ₹6.65 |
| LT-IA | 500–600 kWh | ₹8.80 |
| LT-IA | 600–800 kWh | ₹9.95 |
| LT-IA | 800–1000 kWh | ₹11.05 |
| LT-IA | 1000+ kWh | ₹12.15 |
10-Year Tariff History
Published slab rates · no derived averages
DISCOM Health
Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY16 → FY23
11.7%
Latest
Aggregate Technical & Commercial losses per PFC's Annual Integrated Rating of State Power Distribution Utilities. Backfilled FY16 onwards where published. Latest published edition is the 13th Rating (FY22-23 data); forward-year cells marked is_modeled=true.
AT&C (Aggregate Technical & Commercial) loss is the single clearest read on a distribution utility's solvency. Every percentage point is power delivered but never billed or collected; a worsening trend tells you a DISCOM is heading toward the payment delays that ripple back to gencos and IPPs.