Demand — actual & forecast
issued 2 Oct, 23:00 IST
Global modelPeak 24.3 GW · 15:00 IST
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Forecast
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Gujarat · generation mix · back to 2020
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State at a glance
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Subsidies & Incentives
4 active schemes applicable to Gujarat
Editorial seed catalogue covering central schemes (PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, PM-KUSUM) plus state-specific schemes (DBT for agriculture, domestic free-units, OA banking). Rows with is_modeled=true are reasonable estimates pending direct verification of the primary GR / regulator order.
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News has moved to the News page
Every story tagged Gujarat, with its sources and the figures it reports, lives on one page you can filter and search.
Read Gujarat newsGujarat is drawing 21,401 MW as of 2026-10-02T16:00:00+00:00 IST, sourced from the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) account for 13.0% of in-state generation in Gujarat as of 2026-10-02T16:00:00+00:00 IST. Nuclear and imports are excluded.
Gujarat's current grid carbon intensity is 695 gCO2/kWh as of 2026-10-02T16:00:00+00:00 IST, computed from the metered fuel mix using CEA v18 lifecycle emission factors.
Today's peak demand so far in Gujarat occurred at 15:30 IST. The value remains provisional until the current IST day ends.
Distribution in Gujarat is handled by one or more state-licensed DISCOMs; see the DISCOM card on the state page for the live roster.
The day-ahead demand forecast for Gujarat runs at single-digit MAPE; we publish the rolling 30-day MAPE on the State MAPE History card so readers can audit it themselves. Live demand comes from the SLDC scrape when available; non-SLDC states use the Atlas DISCOM disaggregation pipeline (Tier-A/B/C provenance, P10/P50/P90 bands).
Gujarat is drawing 21,401 MW of electricity at the current hour (2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30 IST), per the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
The latest modeled in-state generation mix for Gujarat is dominated by Coal at 62.7%. Grid carbon intensity is 695 gCO2/kWh.
Demand for Gujarat is sourced from a live SLDC scrape (metered, no disaggregation needed).
The day-ahead hourly demand forecast for Gujarat publishes a ±1.5σ band over the next 24 hours — per-state model v20 (holdout MAPE 5.0%); level-calibrated x1.12 vs canonical trailing 24h.
Composed at 2026-10-03T00:00:00+05:30
Load shape
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Load distribution
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Weather sensitivity
Slope
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R²
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Confidence
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Demand's sensitivity to temperature (MW per degree) is what turns a heatwave forecast into a load forecast. A high, tight slope means cooling load dominates and peaks are weather-driven and forecastable; a weak or noisy slope means the swing factor is something else — industrial shifts, agriculture, or a data gap worth questioning.
Verified <5% on the leak-free IEA-1763 spike; the live-served forecast is currently above target (serving-side level/staleness artifact) pending the recommended calibration deploy.
Median gCO₂/kWh · day-of-week × hour-of-day (IST)
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Policy & RE Transition
Latest actual
FY23 · modelled
Shortfall
vs FY23 target
A Renewable Purchase Obligation is statutory, not aspirational: a state utility must source a set share of its energy from renewables or pay a penalty. A widening shortfall against the MNRE trajectory is an early signal of either a procurement gap or a banked-REC scramble at year-end — both move power and REC prices.
Grid cleanliness
Each cell is one hour's grid carbon intensity. Greener = cleaner, browner = more fossil — the green hours are when discretionary load is cheapest on emissions.
SOURCE: CEA carbon factors · UPDATED 23:30 IST
Generation mix
Each band is a fuel's share of generation each hour — watch the solar wedge swell midday and coal hold the baseload, independent of total load.
SOURCE: SLDC fuel mix · UPDATED 23:30 IST
Coverage: frequency since 2025-09-19; congestion since 2026-05-22; demand records since 2018-01-01; news since 2026-05-22.
Interchange under-drawal -679 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -975 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -825 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -667 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -733 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -1000 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -908 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -942 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -1204 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -442 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -392 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Interchange under-drawal -638 MW vs schedule
Inter-state transfer · POSOCO PSP daily
Daily analytics cache
30D avg peak
2026-10-02
YoY peak shift
30D vs prior year
Load factor
729 daily rows
Shortage days
23.3 MU
30D carbon avg
derived daily layer
Weather-load link
90 joined days
Data centers
13 MW mapped
Fiber routes
206 route segments
Digital infra basis
State bounds route estimate
Weather link
Temperature vs daily peak load
An hourly residential cost curve isn't published for Gujarat yet — it appears once the underlying tariff data is available.
Upstream: atlas-discom-disaggregation · /v1/discom-disaggregation/hourly-residential-demand
Residential Tariff
| Schedule | Slab | Energy rate (₹/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| RGP | 0–50 kWh | ₹3.05 |
| RGP-BPL | 0–50 kWh | ₹1.50 |
| RGP-PREPAID | 0–50 kWh | ₹2.96 |
| RGP-RURAL | 0–50 kWh | ₹2.65 |
| RGP-RURAL-PREPAID | 0–50 kWh | ₹2.57 |
| RGP | 50–100 kWh | ₹3.50 |
| RGP-RURAL-PREPAID | 50–100 kWh | ₹3.01 |
| RGP-RURAL | 50–100 kWh | ₹3.10 |
12 additional slabs hidden.
10-Year Tariff History
Published slab rates · no derived averages
DISCOM Health
Uttar Gujarat Vij Company Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY20 → FY23
12.1%
Latest
Dakshin Gujarat Vij Company Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY16 → FY23
6.4%
Latest
Aggregate Technical & Commercial losses per PFC's Annual Integrated Rating of State Power Distribution Utilities. Backfilled FY16 onwards where published. Latest published edition is the 13th Rating (FY22-23 data); forward-year cells marked is_modeled=true.
AT&C (Aggregate Technical & Commercial) loss is the single clearest read on a distribution utility's solvency. Every percentage point is power delivered but never billed or collected; a worsening trend tells you a DISCOM is heading toward the payment delays that ripple back to gencos and IPPs.